This Small Area Estimation (SAE) project explores whether a model-based approach can be used to produce accurate and useful estimates of how people in different Local Authorities (LAs) engage with nature.
Using data from The Adults’ People & Nature Survey (A-PaNS), it focuses on estimating the proportion of adults who have visited ‘green & natural spaces’ over the previous 14 days (AnyVisit14), and consider that green and natural spaces ‘close to where they live’ have improved over the previous five years (ImprovedSpaces).
This report outlines the principles and implementation of SAE, details the AnyVisits14 and ImprovedSpaces models, reports on the final set of LA-level estimates and outlines key observations for Natural England and LA stakeholders:
- SAE produces more precise LA-level estimates than can be achieved using traditional survey-based estimation.
- Responses to the AnyVisit14 and ImprovedSpaces questions were strongly influenced by individual-level factors such as age, general health, and educational status.
- The SAE models developed in this study improved LA-level estimate precision, but significant uncertainty remains. Additional data from future A-PaNS and/or the use of better locality data will allow for further improvement.
- It is questionable, whether this approach will be able to produce estimates that are precise enough to monitor how use of, and attitudes to, nature in specific LAs change over time.
- If the goal is to inform the development of policies that encourage the use of green and natural spaces, striving to improve estimate precision may not represent the best use of A-PaNS. Effort would be better focused on using SAE as a framework for developing The Adults’ People and Nature Survey.
- Five ‘Further Work’ recommendations